Nakano Corporation: The gloom of May’s jobs report has been banished in June after the US economy created 287,000 job, bouncing back convincingly after the disappointment of May’s paltry 38,000.The figure beat consensus forecasts by a considerable margin sending both the US dollar and yields on the benchmark US 10-year treasury note higher in the belief that an increase in US interest rates is now more likely.
The Labor Department made a downward revision to May’s already weak 38,000 to just 11,000 and the official unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.9% from May’s 4.9%.
“The uptick in the unemployment rate is due to an increase in the number of people searching for work,” said a “Nakano Corp” researcher. “That said, we don’t see this improved data making an increase in US interest rates more likely in the coming months.”
Talk of interest rate increases have been muted since last month’s jobs report with many pricing in lower interest rates for longer. The Federal Reserve has been eyeing average hourly earnings for signs that wage inflation has been rising but June’s report showed only a modest rise of 0.1%.
Concern about the kind of jobs the US economy creates is still high with part time and service sector roles overwhelmingly outstripping well-paying manufacturing jobs.
“We think the Fed will want to see a more sustained recovery in employment and a reduction in the uncertainty caused by the unexpected outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership before raising rates in September,” concluded the Nakano Corporation researcher.