North America had a more eventful price story, with prices climbing from USD 1.63/KG in Q1 to USD 1.81/KG in Q3, then pulling back modestly to USD 1.76/KG in Q4, representing a 2.8% decrease. The price movement in North America was driven by factors such as the California crop, export demand, and global health food trends. In Q2 2025, North America saw a significant increase of 4.9% to USD 1.71/KG, followed by a 5.8% increase to USD 1.81/KG in Q3. The price then decreased by 2.8% to USD 1.76/KG in Q4.

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India was the picture of steadiness, with prices rising every single quarter from USD 1.02/KG in Q1 to USD 1.07/KG in Q4. The price movement in India was driven by factors such as import costs, seasonal demand, and rupee movement. In Q2 2025, India saw a 2.0% increase to USD 1.04/KG, followed by a 1.0% increase to USD 1.05/KG in Q3, and finally a 1.9% increase to USD 1.07/KG in Q4. The global average price also saw a gradual increase, with a 3.76% increase to USD 1.38/KG in Q2, and a 3.62% increase to USD 1.43/KG in Q3.

The key market drivers that influenced the price trend included the California bloom, USDA May crop estimate, Indian import tariffs, and rupee movement. These factors had a significant impact on the price movement, with the California bloom and USDA May crop estimate setting the tone for the year. The global health food and plant-based product demand also provided a floor under consumption, driving the price trend upwards.

The outlook for the nut price trend in 2026-2027 is expected to be influenced by the California bloom in February and the USDA May crop estimate. According to Expert Market Research, the global health food and plant-based product demand is expected to continue providing a floor under consumption. As the demand for healthy food options continues to grow, the price trend is expected to remain stable, with a potential for gradual increases driven by key market drivers.

In conclusion, the almond price trend in 2025 was gradual, with no shocks or crashes, and is expected to be influenced by key market drivers in 2026-2027. The California bloom and USDA May crop estimate will set the tone for the year, while the global health food and plant-based product demand will continue to provide a floor under consumption. As the demand for healthy food options grows, the price trend is expected to remain stable, with a potential for gradual increases.