The global dioctyl phthalate (DOP) price trend witnessed a substantial downward shift through the final quarter of 2024, driven by weaker feedstock prices, sluggish demand from the PVC and plasticiser industries, and elevated supply availability across major Asian markets. Despite the steep year-on-year declines, market forecasts indicate that prices may experience a modest recovery in 2025 as demand stabilises and raw material costs adjust upward.In October 2024, DOP prices in the Ex-Works China market stood at 1295 USD/MT, dropping sharply by 18.0% compared to 1580 USD/MT in October 2023. This decline was largely influenced by weak market sentiment in downstream sectors, particularly in construction and automotive manufacturing, which saw reduced consumption of flexible PVC products. However, analysts from Expert Market Research anticipate a gradual recovery in 2025 as feedstock 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) prices begin to stabilise.
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The downward momentum continued into November 2024, when DOP prices settled at 1290 USD/MT, reflecting a 17.8% YoY decline from 1570 USD/MT recorded in November 2023. Although demand remained soft, the month saw slightly improved buying interest from cable and flooring manufacturers, supporting short-term market steadiness. Nonetheless, ample inventories and muted exports prevented any significant price rebound.
The sharpest correction occurred in December 2024, with prices plummeting to 1175 USD/MT, a dramatic 29.2% YoY decrease from 1660 USD/MT in December 2023. The December fall was primarily caused by intensified competition from alternative plasticisers and aggressive selling activity amid year-end inventory liquidation. Additionally, elevated supply levels across China exerted further pressure on spot prices.
Despite the weakened pricing environment, industry experts note that the downturn may be bottoming out. The Expert Market Research price prediction for 2025 suggests a modest recovery, supported by anticipated improvements in downstream consumption, renewed construction activity in emerging markets, and stabilising feedstock trends. While the recovery is expected to be gradual, the market is unlikely to witness the extreme volatility seen in late 2024.
The broader outlook for the dioctyl phthalate (DOP) market also reflects a shift toward careful inventory management, strategic procurement, and growing interest in alternative plasticisers. However, DOP continues to hold strong relevance in flexible PVC manufacturing due to its cost-effectiveness and established performance profile.
As industries such as packaging, consumer goods, automotive interiors, and electrical applications gradually rebound, the global DOP market is expected to enter a more stable pricing phase through 2025, offering improved predictability and healthier market sentiment for producers and buyers alike.