The global ethylene price trend witnessed notable fluctuations in late 2024, reflecting a mix of downward and upward movements across key months as market fundamentals shifted in response to regional supply dynamics and recovering demand. According to Expert Market Research data, ethylene polymer grade prices under China CIF conditions displayed varied year-on-year performance, setting the stage for a potentially volatile pricing environment in 2025.In October 2024, ethylene prices declined to 941 USD/MT, down 4% from 980 USD/MT in October 2023. This early-quarter dip was largely attributed to cautious downstream demand, steady operating rates across Asian production facilities, and relatively soft crude oil volatility during the period. Market sources noted that buyers maintained conservative procurement, leading to mild downward pressure on spot prices.
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However, the trend reversed in November 2024 when prices climbed to 925 USD/MT, registering a 3% YoY increase compared to 898 USD/MT a year earlier. This rebound was supported by firm demand from downstream polyethylene producers and tightening regional availability due to scheduled maintenance at several petrochemical complexes. Improved sentiment among manufacturers and stable freight conditions also contributed to price strengthening.
By December 2024, the upward momentum continued, with ethylene prices rising to 917 USD/MT, marking a significant 9% YoY increase from 845 USD/MT in December 2023. Analysts attribute this surge to heightened procurement activities ahead of year-end inventory replenishment, reduced supply inflows from key exporters, and anticipation of stronger demand from packaging, construction, and automotive sectors in early 2025. Additionally, global energy cost fluctuations and ongoing geopolitical trade adjustments added a layer of unpredictability, further supporting price gains.
Looking ahead, Expert Market Research forecasts that ethylene prices in 2025 are likely to remain volatile, with a potential upward bias driven by regional capacity constraints and firm downstream consumption. Several major production sites in Asia are expected to undergo capacity shifts and operational adjustments, which may influence supply balances throughout the year. Furthermore, demand from high-use industries—including plastics manufacturing, consumer goods, and industrial chemicals—is projected to remain resilient, contributing to steadier price levels.
Overall, the ethylene market enters 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook despite the inherent volatility in feedstock markets and shifting global trade flows. Buyers and suppliers are advised to monitor production trends, energy markets, and logistical developments closely, as these factors will play a critical role in shaping price stability over the coming quarters.