The global aluminium price trend exhibited a mix of upward and slight downward movements in late 2024, reflecting tightening supply conditions, firm industrial demand, and shifting market fundamentals across key regions. Recent CFR China pricing data highlights a varied performance across the final quarter of the year, indicating a market in transition as producers and consumers prepare for changing dynamics in 2025.In October 2024, aluminium prices rose to 2866 USD/MT, up from 2713 USD/MT in October 2023, marking a 6% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The upward movement was driven primarily by constrained supply resulting from production cuts in major smelting regions, alongside strong demand from construction, automotive, and packaging sectors. Higher energy costs also contributed to increased production expenses, supporting firmer price levels.
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However, the trend shifted slightly in November 2024, when prices dipped to 2636 USD/MT, compared to 2676 USD/MT in November 2023—reflecting a modest 1% YoY decline. This temporary softening was attributed to easing demand from downstream industries due to seasonal slowdowns and inventory adjustments. Nevertheless, the market remained broadly supported by ongoing supply limitations and steady export demand from key Asian markets, preventing any significant price correction.
By December 2024, aluminium regained momentum, rising to 2780 USD/MT compared with 2665 USD/MT in December 2023, registering a 4% YoY increase. The rebound was fueled by tightening supply conditions, improving purchasing activity, and anticipation of stronger industrial consumption in the early months of 2025. Additionally, disruptions in bauxite and alumina supply chains contributed to upward price pressure, reinforcing the market’s bullish undertone.
According to Expert Market Research, the aluminium price forecast for 2025 suggests prices are likely to remain firm, supported by tight supply and strong demand from construction, transport, renewable energy infrastructure, and packaging industries. Many smelters are expected to continue operating under capacity constraints due to energy-related restrictions, while downstream sectors anticipate gradual demand recovery following economic normalization in major economies.
However, analysts caution that global aluminium prices may experience intermittent volatility influenced by energy price fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Regulatory developments related to carbon emissions and sustainable production may also shape supply conditions and pricing trends throughout the year.
As the aluminium market moves into 2025, procurement strategies are expected to emphasize risk mitigation, forward contracting, and inventory optimization. With the aluminium price trend pointing toward firm yet potentially volatile movement, both producers and buyers are preparing for a year marked by cautious optimism and ongoing market adjustments.