The global urea price trend witnessed a significant decline in late 2024, marked by sharp year-on-year (YoY) drops across major markets, particularly in China, where price corrections intensified due to oversupply, muted export demand, and fluctuating feedstock costs. With agriculture entering seasonal transitions and global trade experiencing shifts, the fertilizer market continues to navigate a highly volatile environment.According to Ex-Works China pricing data, urea prices in October 2024 fell to 305 USD/TON, down from 348 USD/TON in October 2023, representing a 12.4% YoY decrease. The decline was largely influenced by moderate agricultural demand, increased availability from Chinese producers, and wider market uncertainties tied to global energy price movements. Despite the downturn, analysts noted mild upward pressure heading into Q1 2025, driven by seasonal procurement from key agricultural economies.
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The downward trajectory steepened in November 2024, when prices dropped to 285 USD/TON compared with 355 USD/TON in November 2023—marking a substantial 19.7% YoY fall. This sharper decline stemmed from subdued international orders, rising inventories, and competitive export pricing by regional suppliers. Weak demand from South Asia and Southeast Asia, combined with reduced spot purchases, contributed to the intensified downward pressure.
By December 2024, the urea market experienced its most pronounced correction of the quarter, with prices sliding to 255 USD/TON—a steep 29.2% YoY decrease from 360 USD/TON in December 2023. The significant fall reflected ample supply, lower natural gas costs in select regions, and reduced off-take from fertilizer blenders and distributors. Additionally, global trade disruptions and currency fluctuations further influenced price instability throughout the month.
Looking ahead, Expert Market Research forecasts that urea prices in 2025 are expected to remain volatile, with the potential for mild upward movement supported by seasonal agricultural demand and intermittent supply constraints. Factors such as energy price trends, government export regulations, and the planting cycles of major crop-growing regions will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping pricing dynamics.
However, market analysts caution that urea prices may continue facing pressure from oversupply concerns, especially if production remains elevated in China and the Middle East. Economic uncertainties and varying weather patterns may also influence fertilizer consumption rates, limiting the potential for sustained price recovery early in the year.
As industry players enter 2025, procurement strategies are expected to shift toward optimizing supply chains, adjusting inventory levels, and monitoring global market signals closely. With the urea price trend highlighting sharp declines yet potential for modest upward adjustments, stakeholders are preparing for another year marked by uncertainty and strategic planning.