The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has substantially revised upward its forecast for Hong Kong's merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42%-47%, following significantly stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies, prompting a major upgrade to the trade outlook. Meanwhile, the latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) indicates that exporter sentiment remains broadly positive despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Current Performance Index stood at 51.8, while the Expectation Index registered 51.3, with both remaining above the neutral 50-point threshold.HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang (left), Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu (centre) and Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory Kenneth Lee (right) announced the latest Hong Kong’s export outlook for 2026 and HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the third quarter of the year at a press conference today.
AI-driven electronics exceed expectations
Commenting on the export outlook, HKTDC Director of Research, Bruce Pang, said: "The strong Hong Kong export growth recorded this year has been driven primarily by the rapid acceleration of global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure. Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong's exports."
HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang
Electronics remained the dominant growth engine, accounting for approximately 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first eight months of 2026. Exports of electronics rose by 52.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall export growth. Major markets included the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and the US, reflecting strong demand across global technology supply chains.
Particularly notable was the strong performance of items related to growing investments in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data centres and next-generation digital technologies worldwide. AI-related electronics now account for an increasingly significant share of Hong Kong's exports.
Growth with broader regional trade flows throughout Asia
The strong export performance has not been confined to a narrow range of technology items. HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, Wing Chu, said: "Exports of a broad range of conventional electronic parts and components have continued to perform strongly. Regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN economies remain highly active, supporting vigorous trade flows throughout Asia. At the same time, export performance across many traditional industries has remained broadly stable, reflecting continued overseas demand and resilient consumption in major markets."
HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu
ASEAN continues to be one of Hong Kong's most dynamic export destinations, while exporter sentiment towards both ASEAN and the Chinese Mainland remains firmly positive. Regional trade flows across Asia have remained exceptionally strong amid the ongoing technology upcycle, demonstrating the resilience of regional production networks and supply chains. The Chinese Mainland's high-technology manufacturing sector has remained in expansion territory, helping sustain demand for electronic components and related intermediate goods.
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