The global methanol price trend showed a mild upward movement in the last quarter of 2024, although broader market fundamentals remained weak due to sluggish downstream demand, steady production rates, and limited support from global energy markets. Despite the incremental month-on-month price increases, the market outlook for 2025 remains subdued as supply continues to outweigh consumption across key application sectors.In October 2024, methanol prices in the China spot market climbed to 355 USD/TON, recording a 4.6% year-on-year increase from 339 USD/TON in October 2023. This modest rise was primarily driven by short-term supply adjustments and slightly improved buying sentiment in select downstream industries such as formaldehyde and MTBE. However, the overall demand environment remained restrained, limiting upward momentum.
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The trend continued in November 2024, with methanol prices at 351 USD/TON, up 3.5% YoY compared to 339 USD/TON in November 2023. Production remained stable across major suppliers, particularly in China, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, keeping the market well supplied. Weakness in derivatives such as acetic acid and olefins further dampened procurement enthusiasm, leading to a relatively balanced but subdued trading environment. Seasonal demand increases were insufficient to push prices significantly higher.
In December 2024, methanol prices reached 361 USD/TON, marking a 4.8% YoY increase from 345 USD/TON in December 2023. The slight uptick was supported by firmer crude oil prices, marginally improved industrial operating rates, and tighter inventories in some coastal regions. Nevertheless, the rise remained constrained by the overall oversupply situation and cautious buyer sentiment heading into the new year.
According to Expert Market Research, methanol prices in 2025 are expected to stay weak, influenced by slow demand recovery, consistent supply from global producers, and limited upward pressure from energy markets. The methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector, a major consumer of methanol, continues to face operational and profitability challenges, reducing its ability to absorb excess supply. Meanwhile, methanol demand from traditional segments such as resins, plastics, and solvents has yet to show sustained improvement, further contributing to a bearish outlook.
Environmental policies, capacity expansions, and shifting trade flows will also play key roles in shaping market direction in 2025. With new production facilities expected to come online, the global methanol market may face additional downward pressure unless demand from fuels and chemicals strengthens significantly.
As 2024 closes with modest gains but limited momentum, market participants are advised to track inventory levels, crude oil price changes, and industrial activity indicators for more accurate procurement planning in 2025.