Urea Price Trend has witnessed a notable recovery in Q1 2026, with global prices averaging USD 0.370/KG, marking a 10.3% increase from the previous quarter. This uptrend is largely attributed to seasonal demand and constrained Chinese export availability. The global average price is expected to remain between USD 0.37 and USD 0.43/KG for the remainder of 2026. India averaged the highest price at USD 0.467/KG, while Europe and North America also saw price increases.
In Europe, the price movement was up, averaging USD 0.435/KG in Q1 2026, representing a 2.9% change. Key drivers of this trend include pre-season procurement, EU carbon border, and import arrivals. The region's prices were also influenced by the post-season correction and pre-season positioning in the previous quarter. The European market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the demand for this chemical. According to Expert Market Research, this commodity's price movement in Europe is closely tied to the region's agricultural demand cycles.
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In North America, the price movement was up, averaging USD 0.415/KG in Q1 2026, representing a 10.7% change. Key drivers of this trend include early pre-spring planting, warmer winter conditions, and distributor buying. The region's prices were also influenced by the end of fall application and distributor destocking in the previous quarter. The North American market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the demand for this material. The natural gas costs in key production regions have also remained broadly stable, providing support to prices.
In India, the price movement was up, averaging USD 0.467/KG in Q1 2026, representing a 3.3% change. Key drivers of this trend include the Rabi crop season, government procurement, and constrained Chinese export. The Indian government's tender activity has also played a significant role in shaping the country's urea price trend. The Indian market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the demand for this commodity. The supply-side dynamics, including the feedstock natural gas, have also remained stable, supporting the prices of this chemical.
Major market events, such as Chinese export quota restrictions and Indian government tender activity, have significantly impacted the urea price trend. Seasonal agricultural demand cycles have also played a crucial role in shaping the prices of this material. The geopolitical and supply-chain implications of these events have been closely monitored by Expert Market Research, providing valuable insights into the market trends.
Looking ahead, the supply-demand balance of this commodity is expected to remain constructive through 2026, with natural gas costs in key production regions broadly stable and Chinese export availability constrained, providing support to prices. However, the primary upside risk is further Chinese export tightening combined with a Middle East gas price spike, while the primary downside risk is a significant increase in Chinese export volumes. As the market continues to evolve, it is essential to stay informed about the latest trends and forecasts to make informed decisions.